Then again, maybe not.

Anyway, here goes.

India has a very substantial middle-class.  We can use a simple definition.  Those people who enjoy a certain level of material well being.  They live in apartments and houses of reasonable size and comfort, they eat sufficient in both quantity and quality, have children in fee-paying schools, perhaps own a car and a 42” Plasma Flat Screen TV.  They might own small businesses, or work as mid- to senior- level management.

They have also been around a very long time: certainly for the past 40 years or more.

All the time some members of this ‘middle class’ drop out.  A few (very few), find a ‘ladder’ and move up to join the ‘rich’, and (even fewer) the super-rich.

Others, for a plethora of reasons – drugs, bad investments. divorce, etc – tread on a ‘snake’ and go skidding downwards.

Regardless of individual circumstances the Indian middle-class – viewed as a single unit – have a constant demand for up-dating their belongings.  Some will want to throw out the old 17” Sony TV and replace it with a flatscreen the size of a football – sorry, cricket field.

Others will buy new shoes or more powerful laptop computers.  But they will not buy all these things, and certainly not all in one great burst of extravagance.

They are replacing existing items.  Much of what they own remains perfectly functional – for the time being.

Essentially, India’s middle-class spend a vast amount of money – but not all at once.

Now, take a look at the middle-class in China.

Right now the Chinese middle-class is on a buying spree.  They have the wherewithal to enjoy material benefits their parents could only dream of.  So great is their potential indeed that some economists and business gurus maintain that the Chinese middle-class are the ‘buyers of last resort’: an essential element in helping the western economies back to health.

However, this will not last forever.  Even Chinese buyers are sated with 60” plasma screens and how many iPhones, Buicks, and kitchen tables of Italian marble can anyone use all at one time?

(In this piece we won’t attempt to deal with additional issues like property ‘bubbles’ – a ‘snake’ if ever there was – and which could return many to poverty.)

The Chinese middle-class simply cannot keep spending at their present level.  Yes, there is still excellent opportunity for the ranks of the Chinese middle-class to grow apace, and these new players could sustain healthy balance sheets in both domestic and overseas businesses aimed at a middle-class market – but it won’t last for ever.

The Chinese middle-class might be the model for today, but the Indian version is probably the one to work to over the mid- to longer-term.